Winter Storm Update

First...
Possibly some very light snow or most likely, just flurries for us
tonight. A little clipper type system is flying through, there's not
much in the way of moisture to work with so I wouldn't expect too much
out of it.


Here's what's happened overnight.

The models are still showing a major winter storm in the south. There
are some differences between these latest runs and the runs from
yesterday and this is to be expected over the next three days as the
models get a better handle on the storm. The low is still off of the
California coast and won't be onshore for another 24-48 hours.

The differences are:

1. The low pressure system that will be responsible for the
precipitation is now looking stronger, and stronger means more
precipitation. Some of the QPF amounts are in the 1"- 2" range (for
someone, not everyone) of liquid precipitation. It also means warmer
air so there is a trade-off for someone in the south. If you were
looking at a pure snow event, we could possibly see 10" - 15" of snow
from that liquid amount, but some of the moisture might fall as sleet,
and in some areas, freezing rain. Here's the real problem. The
freezing line has moved closer to the Atlanta area with the increase
in storm strength, a freezing rain event of this magnitude would be
devastating and crippling for many people and a very dangerous
situation that needs to be watched very closely. A quarter of an inch
of ice is dangerous but an inch or more and we all lose power for an
extended amount of time. Top that off with temperatures that might not
hit 20 on Tuesday and Wednesday, you begin to see the how important
tracking the exact track storm is going to be.

2. The storm appears to be modeled to move a little slower. This could
be one reason for the higher precipitation amounts. Needless to say,
once the frozen precipitation starts, it should be a lengthy event. It
could snow for as long as 24 hours straight. Or sleet. Or freezing
rain. You get the picture.

It will still be a few days, probably sometime on Saturday, before the
models have a good handle on the exact track of the storm. And even
then, +-50 miles is all the difference it makes here in the south.

However this ends up playing out, I would begin making preparations
for a large southeast winter storm. And most of all, be prepared for
an ice storm, I'm NOT saying that's going to happen for us, just know
the potential is there.