Winter Weather Update

First, no concern for us today.

Here is an update after last night’s model runs.

The main issue right off the bat is that this is still pretty far out in the model world (around 5 days or so away) so the models have been having a hard time converging on a specific solution. This problem is exacerbated when you are in a strongly blocking regime, one of which is very unusual during the La Nina pattern. In essence, the models have been everywhere.

But now a nice trend is shaping up with a potential southeast snowstorm for late this weekend. There are two models with a similar forecast that is carrying some weight since one of them is the EURO with several consecutive consistent runs inside five days now. Add to this mix the NAM at hour 84 showing something similar and now the 06z GFS trending toward the same idea, it’s plausible to start getting excited. It will still take a few more days to nail down the exact
details, but things in the model world are starting to fall in line with the pattern that is evolving. We'll see how the EURO does on the next run today, if we get three consecutive consistent runs the confidence factor will go up considerably. The main thing now is to
getting the pattern to fall into place (which it appears is happening)and the details will follow. Hopefully everyone in the SE can get some white carpet laid down and make the future long cold snap more enjoyable. Just to tease you, some models are showing anywhere from 2"to 10", possibly more (or less) for this area depending on the track of the low and the location of the cold air. It's still too far out to know anything definite though.

Some of the models are showing highs for a few days next week in the teens for our area, so expect some bitterly cold air to plunge south at the start of the week. Not only that, it's not forecasted to go anywhere anytime soon and will probably make this the coldest January in almost 25 years. Throw in multiple chances for frozen precipitation next week and we might start to look like it does up north!
We will probably send these emails out daily for the next few days to keep you updated with what's going on. Things are rapidly changing and need to be watched closely.

Stay tuned!